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Latest Lines

Latest Lines: Instacart 500k

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: March 13, 2021, 4:53 pm ET

Line Moves

Heading into the weekend, Chase Elliott remains the favorite while seven drivers ranked among the top 10 experienced line movements for the Instacart 500k at Phoenix Raceway.

The two drivers who opened the week with the lowest odds at PointsBet Sportsbook experienced minor adjustments this week. Both had a little bit shaved off their totals – indicating that enough money came in at the original rate that oddsmakers did not need to sweeten the pot.

Elliott (+575) not only remained the favorite, but saw a reduction of 25 points. With opening odds of 6/1, we didn’t think there was enough return on investment to make him a good value earlier. He is even less so with a quarter removed from the payout.


By the career stats at Phoenix, Harvick (+625) should be the favorite, but Stewart-Haas Racing is struggling during the first four weeks of the season. If his odds were higher – and therefore had a better upside – we would suggest bettors go all in on him. It is likely that this team will be the first to turn things around in that camp. But success can be fleeting and is wins are not usually the first sign of improvement. Even though he has dominated on this track, it seems unlikely he will go from an average finish of almost ninth to first.

This will be an important race nonetheless, because if Harvick challenges for the victory late in the race, it will give him momentum going forward. When Harvick is on his A-game, he is good everywhere. There is plenty of time to reintroduce him to the betting strategy.

Brad Keselowski (+700) moved in the opposite direction with 50 cents added to his payout. He was already attractive based on a strong New Hampshire Motor Speedway record and is even more so now. To cover a regular weekly bet, he is going to have to win multiple times in 2021. The good news is that he has earned three or more in each of the last five years. Phoenix is one of eight tracks where he has not yet won, but that could change this week.

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Kyle Busch (+725) was a great value at the start of the week – and it would appear that smart gamblers jumped in while he was listed at +850. To protect their margins, oddsmakers were compelled to shave $1.25 off his payout. Now that his line is closer to Harvick’s, many of the same concerns apply. Joe Gibbs Racing has shown signs of speed and Busch is coming off a third-place finish at Vegas. The No. 18 has been solid at Phoenix. But this team has been erratic enough during the past two seasons to warrant caution.

Money apparently poured in on Kyle Larson (+800) as well. He had a buck taken off his opening odds, but is still worth the bet at 8/1. Larson’s Vegas win is likely to be the first of several, which will cover a weekly strategy – especially until his odds dip below the +600 mark.

One of the biggest movers this week was Matt DiBenedetto (+5000). With dark horses winning the first three races of 2021, bettors are a little giddy in the belief that this trend will continue for a while longer. DiBenedetto’s sweep of the top 15 at Phoenix last year and a strong end to the 2020 short, flat track season makes him a fascinating longshot. The Wood Brothers have a lot of potential, but victories have been rare. “The Burrito” came close on a number of occasions last year, however, and no one will be overly surprised to see him break through during the regular season.

On the other hand, Aric Almirola (+6000) was apparently shunned throughout the week so oddsmakers sweetened the pot to the tune of $10 on the payout. Even with their struggles, SHR is stronger than this line suggests. Depending on what betting strategy you are employing, this kind of undervaluation could be an important consideration.

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Rank

Driver

Current
Odds

Opening
Odds

Change

Odds
Last Race on Track

1.

Chase Elliott

575

600

-25

800

2.

Kevin Harvick

625

675

-50

400

3.

Brad Keselowski

700

650

50

625

3.

Denny Hamlin

700

700

0

700

5.

Kyle Busch

725

850

-125

900

6.

Kyle Larson

800

900

-100

 

7.

Joey Logano

850

850

0

675

8.

Martin Truex Jr.

1200

1100

100

540

9.

Ryan Blaney

1600

1500

100

1000

10.

William Byron

2000

2000

0

5000

 

11.

Alex Bowman

2800

3000

-200

3300

12.

Kurt Busch

3000

3000

0

4000

13.

Christopher Bell

3500

3300

200

9000

14.

Matt DiBenedetto

5000

6000

-1000

6000

15.

Aric Almirola

6000

5000

1000

2800

16.

Tyler Reddick

8000

8000

0

7000

17.

Austin Dillon

9000

8000

1000

4000

17.

Cole Custer

9000

8000

1000

12500

19.

Bubba Wallace

10000

9000

1000

30000

20.

Ryan Newman

12500

12500

0

15000

20.

Erik Jones

12500

12500

0

4000

 

22.

Michael McDowell

15000

20000

-5000

50000

22.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

15000

20000

-5000

15000

22.

Chase Briscoe

15000

15000

0

 

25.

Chris Buescher

20000

20000

0

30000

25.

Ross Chastain

20000

20000

0

 

27.

Daniel Suarez

25000

30000

-5000

50000

28.

Ryan Preece

30000

35000

-5000

50000

29.

JJ Yeley

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

BJ McLeod

50000

50000

0

 

29.

James Davison

50000

50000

0

 

29.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

Timmy Hill

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

 

29.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

Justin Haley

50000

50000

0

 

29.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

Anthony Alfredo

50000

50000

0

 

 

BEAVER’S BEST BETS FOR THE INSTACART 500k
POWER RANKINGS AFTER LAS VEGAS
LINE MOVEMENTS FOR THE PENNZOIL 400

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.